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Ethiopias Blue Nile Dam is an opportunity for regional collaboration, Developing countries are key to climate action, Self-organizing Nigeria: The antifragile state, Managing the compounding debt and climate crises. Despite the intense disagreements, though, Ethiopia continues to move forward with the dam, arguing that the hydroelectric project will significantly improve livelihoods in the region more broadly. A more recent trilateral meeting mediated by the African Union in mid-July, however, appeared to diffuse the situation with all three countries reaching a major common understanding towards achieving an agreement (Al Jazeera, 2020). Sudans agricultural and hydropower interests align with those of Ethiopia while it has a strong interest in not alienating its 'big brother' and northern neighbour, Egypt, with whom it shares a long and partly contested border (Whittington et al., 2014). 74 cubic metres. However, as noted above, the trouble with relying on the DoP is that its legal status is not clearly defined. The decisions that this group renders must be binding on all riparian states. L'Europe en Formation, 365(3), 99-138. The dispute over the GERD is part of a long-standing feud between Egypt and Sudanthe downstream stateson the one hand, and Ethiopia and the upstream riparians on the other over access to the Niles waters, which are considered a lifeline for millions of people living in Egypt and Sudan. Although the immediate issue at stakesecuring a technical agreement on the filling of the GERDs reservoiris among Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan, the broader and longer-term goal should be for all 11 statesincluding Tanzania, Uganda, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Burundi, Kenya, Eritrea, and South Sudanto agree on a legal regime for the management of this important watercourse. Recently, however, Sudan has been more cautious with the project, citing concerns that the GERDs operation and safety could jeopardise its own dams (The New Arab, 2020b). Amazingly, the normally required social and environmental impact studies were only conducted three years after construction of the dam had began. casting the DoP as a treaty) has the potential to abrogate the Nile Waters Treaties that Egypt holds so dear. It signifies that Egypts de facto veto power on major upstream dams has been broken, and it clearly demonstrates the political will of Ethiopia to develop its water infrastructure even in the absence of a comprehensive basin agreement. Indeed, as Tekuya notes, Ethiopia persistently objected to the 1929 and 1959 treaties and made clear that its failure to exploit the Nile resulted from a lack of capacity rather than a lack of a legal right to do so. What could have been strictly technical negotiations have turned into a political deadlock. The New Arab (2020a). l It is in the Benishangul-Gumuz Region of Ethiopia, about 15 km east of the border with Sudan. Both countries are concerned that without a clear and binding agreement with Ethiopia, the latter will have full control of the passage of water from the GERD during droughts, which would be devastating to the lives of millions in Egypt and Sudan. Cairo Controversy prevailed in the Egyptian public opinion, after Deltares, a Dutch advisory institute, announced on Sept. 15 its withdrawal from a study to assess the risks that the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which is under construction on the Blue Nile, can cause to Egypt and Sudan. Disadvantages Slow process Could be washed to the wrong direction Start up costs Lesson 4: Long term investment, It can't cope with he propagation rate of water hyacinth. The CFA was a political success for the eight upstream states such as Ethiopia as it favoured those states and isolated the downstream states of Egypt and Sudan and made them appear recalcitrant. Huddersfield Repository - University of Huddersfield However, it also makes useful concessions to Egypt which it may wish to press. Rendering of GERDEthiopia is building one of the largest dams in the world, the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), on the River Nile near the Sudan border. Ethiopias interests in developing its water resources are driven by its growing population and high demand for socio-economic development (Gebreluel, 2014). When it is completed, with its concrete volume of 10.2 million m3, GERD will feature the largest dam in Africa. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, Ethiopia - Webuild Project Note that, under Article 62(2) VCLT, territorial treaties are excepted from the change in circumstances rule. At that point, the lake that . Ethiopia says it will take a further four to six years to fill up the reservoir to its maximum flood season capacity of 74bcm. If it were to take place during a sequence of years in which the Blue Nile flow and the AHD reservoir itself was low, Egypt might not be able to withdraw sufficient water supplies to meet all of its agricultural needs. It also created a counter message to Egypts powerful the Nile is Egypt narrative that is familiar around the world. . Ethiopia seems to have the legal upper hand in this dispute. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is estimated to cost close to 5 billion US dollars, about 7% of the 2016 Ethiopian gross national product. The results indicated that the negative impacts on Egyptian water resources are dominant. What are the disadvantages of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam However, the DoP lacks these key traits, and these omissions suggest that it may simply be a non-binding declaration designed to ease political tensions and to illuminate a way forward. This dam, set to be the largest in Africa in terms of power capacity, continues to cause disagreement between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt on filling and operation strategies. The GDP per capita in Ethiopia is only $475. Second came the 2015 Declaration of Principles (DoP) which concerned the Dam specifically (rather than the Nile more broadly). Test. Cairo . In July of 2021, the second filling of the dam was completed. Crucially, however, despite being signed by Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan, the legal status of the DoP was left (deliberately) vague. On March 4, 1909, the Copyright Act of 1909 became law, making infringement of a copyright a federal crime for the first time. Ethiopia is pinning its hopes of economic development and power generation on the Blue Nile dam, which Egypt fears will imperil its water supply. From this round of talks, it appears that negotiations are able to move forward and address other sticking points on the agenda, such as conflict resolution mechanisms and the dams operations in the event of multi-year droughts (Al Jazeera, 2020). A major reason the GERD is so controversial today is that it has not been subjected to thorough safety and impact studies, which could pose a grave threat to downriver nations. On Foes and Flows: Vulnerabilities, Adaptive Capacities and Transboundary Relations in the Nile River Basin in Times of Climate Change. The three fillings hitherto, with the most recent in August 2022, imposed no discernible harm on downstream states. Ethiopia, one of the poorest countries in Africa, has the second largest population in the continent. Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam - ArcGIS StoryMaps Al Jazeera (2020). It simultaneously expects that this role will change Ethiopias international status from a country perceived as poor and dependent on foreign aid to a regional power able to provide vital resources to its surrounding region. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 56(4), 687-702. Ethiopia has never 'consumed' significant shares of the Niles water so far, as its previous political and economic fragility in combination with a lack of external financial support, due to persistent Egyptian opposition to projects upstream, prevented it from implementing large-scale projects. Such a meaningful resource-sharing agreement should not only resolve the conflict over water-use rights among the riparian states, but it should help define concepts such as equitable and reasonable use and significant harm, which have been used by the downstream states in their criticisms of the GERD. Ethiopia starts generating power from River Nile dam - BBC News This is because it is traditionally understood to refer to waterways that form intrinsic parts of international boundaries. This is on the basis of the principles of State succession as outlined in the Vienna Convention on the Succession of States (VCSS). In particular, the DoP takes a very strict approach to the no significant harm rule. According to this narrative, the Blue Nile, or Abay in Amharic, is a purely Ethiopian river. Egypt, fearing major disruptions to its access to the Nile's waters, originally intended to prevent even the start of the GERD's construction. Egypt has issued a public statement to that effect. Second, the upstream riparian states must recognize and accept Egypts near total dependence on the waters of the Nile River. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam. Misplaced Opposition to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD): Update. This article considers water security in the context of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (the Dam). Fast Track Approach to Design and Construction at Grand Ethiopian Tawfik, Rawia Discussion Paper 5/2015 . Egypts original goal was to have the project purely and simply cancelled. The official narrative is that Ethiopia can uproot poverty and bring about a definitive end to social and economic underdevelopment by means of the construction of a series of mega-dams combined with the development of the national energy infrastructure. You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. Sima Aldardari. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam will increase energy generation and development in Ethiopia, but it may have unwanted consequences for other Nile River users. In the absence of the application of the Watercourses Convention, various other legal arrangements and political declarations must be considered to gain an understanding of the regulation of the Dam and the Nile River more generally. It will take between eight and ten years to fill the new dam. Match facts: Egypts Ahly v South Africas Mamelodi Sundowns (CAF Champions.. Kevin Harts first Egypt show cancelled 'due to local logistical issues', Match facts: Sudans Al-Hilal v Egypts Ahly (CAF Champions League), Match facts: Egypts Ahly v Cameroons Coton Sport (CAF Champions League), Egyptian Premier League results & scorers (20th matchday), Spain La Liga results & scorers (21st matchday), 13 Egyptian women on Forbes Middle East 100 Most Powerful businesswomen 2023, Egyptian Premier League results & fixtures (18th matchday), English Premier League results & scorers (23rd matchday), Prioritising the best solutions for sustainable development, A new beginning for education and beyond, Prioritizing the UN's Global Development Agenda, US-Africa Leaders Summit: Between expectations and realities. Ethiopias strategy for dam construction goes far beyond developmental goals. Egypt faces another dam challenge - Al-Monitor: Independent, trusted The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and Its Effect on Egypt In addition, no independent, multilateral Environmental and Social Impact Assessments has been carried out suggesting that Ethiopia is reneging from the 2015 Declaration of Principles (Kandeel, 2020). Nevertheless, Khartoum continues to fear that the operation of the GERD could threaten the safety of Sudans own dams and make it much more difficult for the government to manage its own development projects. Ethiopia's Grand Renaissance Dam: Ending Africa's Oldest Geopolitical Rivalry? Ethiopia also seems to have the political upper hand given that the Dam is effectively a fait accompli and given that Egypts erstwhile downstream ally, Sudan, switched sides in the dispute leaving the Egyptians diplomatically isolated.