How this young Indigenous artist is taking inspiration from anime and manga to celebrate his own culture, NBA star Ja Morant suspended, 'takes full responsibility' for nightclub gun video, Andrew Tate shuts down cancer rumors, is accused of recruiting politicians to his cause, 'If carers are going to survive, they need this', says resident pioneering dementia respite care centre. "But, in a large-scale war involving many hundreds of thousands of people in offensive and defensive operations, even before reaching the attendant prospect of reaching a nuclear war threshold, Australia is unlikely to make a substantial difference. The four have more than 100 years of high-level military and strategic experience between them. This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Australia is especially exposed. The US believes China has about 2000 mid-range missiles in place, which could ward off the US Navy in a conflict. Who would win in a hypothetical battle between China and Japan? "It depends. And heres our email: letters@nytimes.com. "So, how would China prosecute the war? The aim would be to foster confusion, division and distrust and hinder decision making. Beyond out-producing the US Navy in the number of warships at a rate of four to one, the PLA Strategic Rocket Force has put US aircraft carriers at risk with the fielding of the DF-21D and DF-26 anti-carrier ballistic missiles, Mr Fanell said. "Major combat against the United States means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. A blockade, he says, would mean 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. Are bills set to rise? "This looks like another reason for statesmanship in averting this possibility.". But this will take time. But China has more at stake, because in the long run Taiwan matters a lot moreto China than to America. Chinas new Type-055 destroyers can carry 112 large missiles. But it has always seemed to me that China, if it decides on military action to force "reunification"is more likely to mount a blockade than an invasion. But Chinas been preparing for this for decades. Rebuilding them could take years. And the operating distances are enormous. The Peoples Liberation Army is capable of substantially subduing the US Navy in the waters around China, a Communist Party-owned newspaper boasts. There are less quantifiable aspects as well. But which one would have military superiority in outright conflict? U.S. supplies of many products could soon run low, paralyzing a vast range of businesses. China could also weaponize its dominance of supply chains and shipping. The US Air Force boasts nearly 2300 warplanes in service, with another 1422 aircraft in use for the US Navy and Marines, Janes calculates. This is how we got here and what needs to change, 'Please confirm what Muslim refers to': Why Ali's birthday payment for his nephew was flagged by his bank, Kade was a fit 31-year-old when he died from a heart attack, Sherpa are world famous for their work, which is synonymous with their name. Supply chains of some critical goods and services need to be reconfigured to shift production to the United States or allied nations, and the United States must pursue a longer-term strategic drive to restore its dominance in global manufacturing. Chinas 1264 warplanes, meanwhile, are based in China. In July 2020, BeiDou, Chinas version of GPS became fully operational, allowing it to track ships, planes, cars and smartphones from space without relying on the US technology that has dominated global positioning for decades. Meia Nouwens from the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Beijing was intent on achieving primacy in the waters that surround China. If Australia sleepwalks into a war with China, as many analysts fear is happening right now, then amid our strategic slumber we should at least ask one question: what would war with China mean for Australia? This service may include material from Agence France-Presse (AFP), APTN, Reuters, AAP, CNN and the BBC World Service which is copyright and cannot be reproduced. Beijing has already put its assets in place. "Assuming that China was eventually able to control the Taiwan Strait, it would deploy land forces to Taiwan, both to subdue/destroy the Taiwanese army, any US or allied ground forces that might be in Taiwan, and then to occupy the country.". China is a country located in Eastern Asia with an area of 9,596,961 km2 (land boundries: 22,457 km and costline 14,500 km). "Australia should use all the means at its disposal to avert a war with China. Behm says a war with China would be "profoundly and devastatingly different" from any other war Australia has participated in since World War II. For a second day in a row Taiwan has reported a large-scale air force incursion, escalating tensions in the region. "Even in Australia, with our record of setting up the basics of a rules-based order, governments have sometimes overlooked the provisions of the rules-based order, when it does not suit them. But will it be safer for women? I think its clear that Australia would be better off staying out of it. And that makes the kind of island-hopping campaign used by the US to take back the Pacific from Japan in World War II no longer feasible. Chinese strategists see these passages as crucial to their ability to deploy forces beyond the first island chain, analyst Ben Lowsen told The Diplomat. But China is a different kind of foe a military, economic and technological power capable of making a war felt in the American homeland. John Howard says he has no regrets about the war in Iraq or Australia's involvement in it. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "Wars contain elements of the irrational: pride, fear, ego, confidence, humiliation, and other emotions that elude our attempts at calculation. China believes the island is part of its territory and has vowed to take it back with force if necessary. I am 68 and I am certain we will be at war with China within my lifetime. After multiple clashes between Australia's regional partners and China, tensions are rising. China has built the world's largest navy and has become increasingly assertive over contested areas such as the South China Sea. 'Nuclear': Grim prediction for what war with China would look like - Yahoo! A blockade may be preceded by firepower strikes. Russian Struggles in Ukraine Show US Special Operators' Logistics Needs How Australia could be forced to go to WAR as tensions between China Hugh White says a war between the US and China over Taiwan would "probably be the biggest and most disruptive war the world has seen since 1945". Beijings response was prompt and predictable. Taiwans Foreign Minister Joseph Wu said on June 3 that Taipei did not anticipate a conflict was going to break out any time soon, but we are trying to get ourselves ready. He says that unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into the conflict and their families, a war with China would have an impact on all Australians "economically, financially and personally it is likely to impoverish us all; it may even kill most of us if it goes nuclear". Reinforcing Taiwan would likely involve long and bloody battles at sea as underarmed escorts struggle to protect the few but highly vulnerable available transports. And that takes the issue of US-China military prowess back to the all-important issue of politics. This is a statesman-like response to the challenges we are addressing today wherein the risk of war has grown since 2017, in my opinion. But there's also bad news ahead. If Australia was dragged into a war with China, what would it look like? What would war with China look like for Australia? Part 2 He believesa blockade of Taiwan by China is more likely than a cross-strait invasion. To accept that argument as policy would mark the end of our strategic alliance with the US, leaving us more exposed to Chinese coercive pressure and political warfare, or even a direct military threat, Dr Davis says. "That is why I think it would be a mistake for America, or Australia, to go to war with China over Taiwan.". There are always a few possibilities that the right thing to do is to go to war irrespective of the expectation that we could 'win' whatever that means. I am convinced that the challenges facing the United States are serious, and its citizens need to become better aware of them. It has just about every contingency covered. Hugh White, who is also Emeritus Professor of Strategic Studies at the Australian National University, is clear in his analysis: "I do not think there is any credible chance that America, with or without Australia's support, could win a war with China over Taiwan." As Australia enjoys all the benefits of a free and open society in a stable and functioning democracy, our principles and values must extend to supporting the survival of Taiwan.. For China, the worst-case scenario is to have to conduct high-intensity operations against Taiwan, the United States, Japan and other US allies and partners simultaneously.". In the previous column the analysesof Hugh White a former Deputy Secretary for Strategy and Intelligence in the Department of Defence and Admiral Chris Barrie who served as Australia's most senior military leader as Chief of the Defence Force from 1998 to 2002were explored. "Australia has always had a fascination about China, going well back in our history to pre-federation days. China is largely trying to take territorial control, which makes east Asia a likely location for trouble. However, without the strong protection of the Australian forces, the world will be in peril from an unrestrained Emu army. If war were to break out, China can be expected to use this to disrupt communications and spread fake news and other disinformation. But leaders in Washington also need to avoid stumbling carelessly into a war with China because it would be unlike anything ever faced by Americans. The US could also use submarines and stealth aircraft to attack Chinas shipping fleet in the Indian Ocean to cripple its economic lifelines in times of a crisis. The Bashi Channel connects the South China Sea with the Pacific Ocean. What war between Australia and China could look like if Taiwan conflict They have different opinions on a range of issues, but one thing that is striking about the four is what they agree on. In a rare joint statement, the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council said it was their primary . The size of the military mobilisation required to achieve this wouldinvolve calling up the reserves and activating the society at large, not just the military,well in advance of an invasion. An earlier government tinkered with the concept of a reduction in the ten years of warning but did almost nothing about demonstrating seriousness. Credit:AP. "No one can be sure how that war would play out, because there have been no major maritime wars since Japan was defeated in 1945, but by far the most likely outcome would be a costly stalemate in which both sides lost heavily but neither side could secure a decisive, war-wining advantage. It can impose costs on our forces. "China does have the mass to sustain a war of attrition over a long period as it did, and has continued to do, in Korea and in Vietnam for that matter.". The leaders of both Ukraine and Russia are expected to meet with China's president in the near future. A new 'veloway' is welcome news for Melbourne's cyclists. Australias Air Warfare Destroyers pack just 42. China would have to launch an amphibious invasion, deploying troops along its beaches as the first step in a march towards the capital Taipei. 2. US forces would be fully committed to the maximum of their capacity, and they would expect and indeed demand the same of us.. The head of Russian mercenary group Wagner says his forces have practically encircled the crucial city of Bakhmut. No doubt Australian passions would run high. China had 55 small war ships in 2020, more than double the number it had five years ago. "There would also be a possibility of exceptionalism if most other countries in Asia did not get involved. Who would win in a battle between the U.S. and Australia? "Unlike the experience of the conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan that affected only the members deployed into conflict, and their families, a war with China will have an impact on all Australians economically, financially, and personally. Sign up for the weekly What in the World newsletter here. But will it be safer for women? Also, we do not have the equivalent of the Chilcott report to illuminate the story. The USs 1.38 million active personnel are better trained and equipped than many of their 1.9 million Chinese peers but getting them in place, and in time, to take on China would be a crucial task. Protests break out in Iran as more schoolgirls hospitalised after suspected poisoning. And doesnt have the necessary reach. Five-centuries-old saffron and ginger found preserved in shipwreck off Sweden, Chinese migrants walked a gruelling 500km to Victoria's goldfields in the 19th century. "We have done work that shows that 'risk aversion'is the critical factor in avoiding war. Get a note direct from our foreign correspondents on whats making headlines around the world. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would punch a hole in the U.S. and allied chain of defenses in the region, seriously undermining Americas strategic position in the Western Pacific, and would probably cut off U.S. access to world-leading semiconductors and other critical components manufactured in Taiwan. Former defence minister, Christopher Pyne, told an audience in Adelaide that Taiwan was the most likely next flashpoint in the region. "Along with military mobilisation China would need to prepare its citizens and economy for a protracted conflict. These flew out of Japan and down the east coast of Taiwan to operate near the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier battle group and the Chinese Liaoning. Mr. Xi, who likes to say that the East is rising while the West is declining, evidently feels that Americas greatest weakness is on its home front. Vietnam and Iraq were illegal wars, with the US Administration(s) lying to their citizens and their allies about the strategic necessity and the morality of the use of armed force. If that's what they mean, their view should be rejected in favour of Australian sovereignty and parliamentary authorisation.". And, in some areas, China may even be ahead. What would war with China look like for Australia? But where does that leave Australia and what does it mean to be a US ally. Current Prime Minister Anthony Albanese would presumably discuss the matter with his National Security Cabinet before any decision is made but there are no checks and balances built into the system before the PM makes the biggest decision that a leader can make to send our young men and women to war. He has served in a number of Australian government agencies and been a senior adviser to several Australian defense ministers. This is what a statesman should do as a risk averse response. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. Ifthey think the blockade is failing they may declare victory by pointing to the damage already inflicted, or they might escalate to attacking US forces that are supporting Taiwan. Looking into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Europe, and in the wider context NATO, is being drawn towards having to deal with an unacceptable risk of war. Professor Clinton Fernandes is a former intelligence officer with the Australian Army Intelligence Corps and now Professor of International and Political Studies at the University of New South Wales. Destroy the offensive capability of the PLAN and People . Defeat the affirmative expeditionary purpose of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN). "That's what General Douglas Macarthur found in 1942. But it doesnt follow that either America or Australia should therefore go to war with China to defend Taiwan, Professor Hugh White noted in 2019. A blockade, he says, would mean that 80 per cent of ships and aircraft would be unable to pass. China would seek to pluck out the eyes and ears of the US and allies to make them blind on the battlefield, said Malcolm Davis, a senior analyst at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. China vs Japan - Who Would Win - Army / Military Comparison Satellite image of Chinese vessels in the Whitsun Reef in a disputed zone, March 23, 2021. Credit:Maxar Technologies via AP. And hes repeatedly expressed his willingness to go to war to remove it. A War With China Would Be Unlike Anything Americans Faced Before, https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/27/opinion/a-war-with-china-would-reach-deep-into-american-society.html, more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles, worlds largest navy and Asias biggest air force, the East is rising while the West is declining. China is aware of this gap. Yet if China wanted to conquer Taiwan, the outcome could be different. It depends how it starts China and the United States are the great rivals in the competition to win the 21st century. [A war is] something that you and I may well have to confront in the next five to 10 years, he said. Brooking Institutions Michael OHanlon writes that the location of Chinas new fleet of attack submarines could act as a deterrent to US military escalation. Washington and Beijing are locked in an intense strategic battle. Chinas airfields, naval ports and missile bases are all nearby. And thats precisely the same vulnerability that saw obsolete battleships sent to the bottom so quickly during World War II. One option to attack the man-made islands would be to send in teams of US Marine Raider commandos to destroy weapons systems. Americas military power is very great, but Chinas military power, and especially its capacity to deny its air and sea approaches to US forces, has grown sharply, and is now formidable, Professor White warned. The context for decision making would be vitally important weighing the potential costs to the country, domestically and internationally, against the value of that cost for maintaining the ANZUS relationship. Answer (1 of 34): I must assume Brian Greenhow is joking, but if he is not I must point out that wars aren't won by population numbers or imaginary 'allies', but by real Alliances, either historical or by treaty, and by technology, military hardware, political maneuvers, industry and money, lots . "Today we can see change for the worse all over the globe. This week, China suspended the China-Australia Strategic Economic Dialogue a diplomatic mechanism for trade talksand accused Australia of "disrupt [ing] the normal exchanges and cooperation . "As a continental power, China has a distinct preference for land warfare. Major combat against the US means two nuclear-armed states fighting each other. The area around it would be highly contested and US war reserve stocks in the Pacific are earmarked for US forces that will assist Taiwan not for Taiwan itself. Now it is China. "This decision over the possibility of war with China could be made more difficult because of ANZUS. I told President Xi that we will maintain a strong military presence in the Indo-Pacific just as we do with NATO in Europe not to start conflict, but to prevent conflict, US President Joe Biden told a joint session of Congress in April. The PLAs missile forces are central to Chinas efforts to deter and counter third-party intervention in a regional conflict, a US congressional report concluded this month. China also has more than 1,350 ballistic and cruise missiles poised to strike U.S. and allied forces in Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and American-held territories in the Western Pacific. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war Part 2. "The Kadena air base is 450 nautical miles away from Taiwan and threatened by Chinese surface-to-surface missiles. Australias role in such a significant potential conflict has been the subject of intense debate in recent years. Scenarios in which it would be right thing to do are few. Only a decade ago, the US would have easily dominated the Chinese military in almost any scenario, says Australian National University Professor Stephan Fruehling. But rhetoric about the international rules-based order and Chinas failure to sign up to all its provisions seems to be "lecturing and hectoring" rather than working assiduously on overcoming differences of perspective. With China's rise and democracy's decline, what will the global order look like in 2050? Have employers used high inflation as cover to make excessive profits? Even with robotic flying tanker support, these enormous ships must operate dangerously close to an enemy before their F-18 Super Hornets and F-35B&C Lightnings are of any use. In this scenario, the US and its allies could respond by conducting airlifts to Taiwan. Don't Do It: An All-Out War With China Could End Humanity It is a bad idea to get into a shooting war with a fellow nuclear power. Put bluntly, the repercussions of Australia joining the US in any war with China over the status of Taiwan or any other issue may have catastrophic consequences. There is a pathway to a future through peaceful dialogue, but its a hard path, and it needs to be worked.. How Australia's way of life could change if we're pulled into war with Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) analyst Dr Malcolm Davis disagrees. To use the words of one leading military analyst, Australia could find itself "sleepwalking" into a war with China. All have been involved in sensitive military operations. Admiral Chris Barriemakes the point that its possible the impact on Australia of any war with China could be greater than any other participant because of Australias low population. Korea was an unnecessary war, as were the conflicts in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Would any divergence of perspectives be thrashed out before going to war? "Yet, as both [Opposition leader] Dutton and [Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence] Richard Marles have indicated in their various pronouncements on the matter, our default position is "all the way with the USA" wherever and whenever. An embarrassed politician may suddenly feel compelled to enforce a vague red line. "I do not know whether Defence planners in Canberra would have made such estimates. "As Carl von Clausewitz noted [in his book On War], defence is the stronger form of war. He believes Australia has a "fundamental strategic pathology to support the interests of the US at the expense of our own.". I am sure that survivors of war may have a more considered view.